Articles & Analysis
Original, data-driven analysis built on the WorldPulse knowledge graph. Every chart is live and reconstructable point-in-time.
Hormuz Has Been Shut for Six Months. Why Didn’t Oil Hit $200?
Ship-tracking data show Strait of Hormuz transits down 85.9% since February 2026 — yet Brent peaked at $118.35 and the Fed never moved. We test the four shock absorbers that capped the price, and find the real damage in the diesel crack spread, which hit $142.66 a barrel in August: its widest of the crisis, four months after crude itself peaked.
How Wrong Is the IMF? We Graded 30,740 WEO Growth Forecasts
We scored every WEO GDP-growth forecast from 34 vintages (2008-2025) against outcomes: the typical year-ahead miss is 3.1 points, the bias is optimistic and grows with horizon, and only 9% of recessions were forecast a year ahead.
Which Countries Look Like 2008? The Credit Gap Map Says None of Them
We ranked 44 economies on the BIS credit-to-GDP gap. In Q4 2007, 17 countries were above the +10pp red line; in Q4 2025, zero. The risk moved to debt service, where Canada, Brazil, China and France sit near record burdens.
The Red Sea Detour, Two and a Half Years Later: Who Actually Paid?
Ship-tracking data show Suez container transits still 57% below pre-crisis levels in mid-2026 — yet European inflation never blinked. The bill went to Egypt's canal tolls, the Mediterranean's transshipment hubs and, briefly, the carriers.
Europe's Missing Electricity: 100 TWh a Year, and the Weather Isn't to Blame
EU power demand is still ~5% below pre-crisis levels four years after the gas shock. Weather-adjusting 22 countries' ENTSO-E load with ERA5 degree-day data shows mild winters explain almost none of the gap — the loss is structural and concentrated in the industrial core.
Europe Has Lost 9% of Its Heating Season
76 winters of ERA5 degree-day data across 25 countries show heating demand in structural, accelerating decline — 9.3% below the 1991-2020 normal over the last five winters — while cooling demand rises 32%.
Is China Still in Deflation? After a 41-Month Slide, the Data Says No
China's factory-gate prices fell for 41 straight months and CPI spent three years at zero. NBS data now shows PPI at +4.1% — but retail sales, property and the M1–M2 gap say the demand problem behind the deflation isn't fixed.
Is the Chip Boom Just NVIDIA? What 15 Income Statements Say
Five AI-exposed chipmakers now take 71.6% of top-15 US chip revenue, up from 32.6% before ChatGPT. We rebuild 15 income statements from SEC filings to show when the boom was one company — and how far it has broadened.
Does China’s 5% Hold Up? Cross-Checking GDP Against the Hard Data
We test Beijing’s headline growth against electricity, factories, exports, PMI, prices and property — the modern Li Keqiang index.