United States Recession Probability
us-recession-probabilityEconomy
Subject
United States
Metric
Recession Probability
Data Points
58
Coverage
2021–2026
Latest Value
0.62
as of Aug 1, 2026
Time Series (58 observations)
Recent Data
| Date | Value | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | 0.62 | - |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 0.24 | - |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 0.1 | - |
| May 1, 2026 | 0.12 | - |
| Apr 1, 2026 | 0.1 | - |
| Mar 1, 2026 | 0.08 | - |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 0.04 | - |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 0.2 | - |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 0.3 | - |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 0.56 | - |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 0.9 | - |
| Sep 1, 2025 | 0.82 | - |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 0.86 | - |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 0.22 | - |
| Jun 1, 2025 | 0.68 | - |
Showing most recent 15 of 58 observations
Data Source
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Retrieved via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis).
Category
Related Data
View all United States data →API Access
# Fetch data by canonical code
GET /api/v1/timeseries/canonical/us-recession-probability
# With date filters
GET /api/v1/timeseries/canonical/us-recession-probability?start_date=2020-01-01
# Point-in-time reconstruction (Pro)
GET /api/v1/timeseries/canonical/us-recession-probability?as_of=2024-01-01